The 2020 West Virginia Gubernatorial race is already in full swing. Gov. Jim Justice (R) is already facing two major primary challengers in businessman Woody Thrasher and former state Delegate Michael Folk. This while the Democratic primary is having an three-way that is having most primary voters unsure who they will vote for. These include activist Stephen Smith, state senator Ron Stollings, and Kanawha County Commissioner Ben Salango.
The difference between the Republican primary and the Democratic primary is name recognition. Currently, 88 percent of Republican primary voters have currently stated an choice for their pick for their nominee, while 58 percent of Democratic voters have picked a preference. Justice only has 56 percent of Republican voters, with both Thrasher and Folk in double digits. So it is not like the voters don’t know who the other two challengers are. It is the Democratic candidates who are struggling to get their message out to the people.
Thrasher, who has spent almost $1 million in this campaign has only picked up two points over the last four months since August from 19 percent to 21 percent. Folk, who is not really getting a lot of play in the media is still hanging around 11 percent of the vote. Thrasher’s money is lot getting him a lot of support at this point, even with an multi-month television ad head start on Justice. Either Thrasher has to break out or he is doomed to fail. Folk needs a moment to get out into the press, in order to increase fundraising and get on television or else he be set just to be the conservative standard bearer in a moderate field.
Smith being at only 21 percent of the Democratic vote is surprising to me. Considering the fact that he has been the only candidate who has really put his policy positions out there he seems that he cannot break out. Either this could be due to the fact that he has progressive positions that will not play well in a state whose although Democrats have the registration advantage, voted for President Donald Trump in 2016. Stollings probably has the more moderate voters, or more statehouse watching voters, as he has fought for teachers during the two strikes and health care. Salango will get a decent amount of votes from his home county of Kanawha, where he is a bold county commissioner, and will probably get some voted from surrounding counties.
One Sentence Prediction: Justice beats Thrasher’s money, and Smith still has the advantage with meeting people and his platform.
2020 Watch 